US President Donald Trump initially offered vocal support for the position of the Saudi-led quartet, but in subsequent months the US adopted a stance that looks far more sympathetic to Qatar, which is home to a huge US military base.

The rest of the GCC has been far from united. While Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have imposed their trade embargo, two other members of the club – Oman and Kuwait – have stayed resolutely above the fray and continue to talk to and trade with all sides.

In addition, the three GCC countries at the forefront of the dispute have also not been as tough as they might first appear. Natural gas continues to flow through the Dolphin pipeline from Qatar to the UAE and on to Oman, supplying much-needed fuel to these countries.

The UAE and Qatar have also continued to cooperate on their shared Bunduq offshore oil field – in March a concession agreement on the field was renewed with a Japanese consortium.

Meanwhile, efforts to resolve the dispute continue, led within the region by Kuwait. In recent days, Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmed Al Jaber Al Sabah has sent envoys to all the other GCC capitals, but there has been no sign the diplomatic push is having any effect.

Kuwait seems intent on continuing to try and bring an end to what is seen as a ‘pointless confrontation.’

While the latest wave of diplomatic turmoil in the region is in large part a result of decisions made in Washington, the US would find the region slightly easier to deal with if the Qatar dispute was solved.

However, given the relative comfort with which it has coped with the embargo to date, there is little incentive for Qatar to make any significant concessions to its opponents.

Those on the other side of the dispute also show little sign of being willing to step back.

It is likely to take much greater outside pressure to force both sides to the negotiating table. The most obvious candidate to exert that pressure is the US, helped on the ground in the region by Kuwait.

Share This Post