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India is world's fastest growing economy, GDP at 7.7%

India likely retained the position of world's fastest growing major economy in the January-March quarter, surpassing China's growth of 6.8 percent, driven by gains in manufacturing and consumer spending.

 

The median in a Reuters poll on the latest quarter's annual growth was 7.3 percent, the best pace since July-September 2016, the quarter before the government unexpectedly scrapped high-value currency notes.

Forecasts for January-March ranged from 6.9 to 7.7 percent.

The government will release GDP data on Thursday around 1200 GMT. On Monday, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said growth in Asia's third largest economy was expected to grow 7.3-7.5 percent.

The data, combined with April's higher annual inflation pace of 4.58 per cent, could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates next week after keeping them on hold for a fourth straight meeting last month.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected to seek a second term in 2019 general elections, has launched a nation-wide goods and services tax and allowed foreign investment in defence and e-commerce businesses to boost economic growth.

However, a botched implementation of the GST nearly scuttled India's growth prospects in the near term.

Economists said a rise in capital investment growth to near 9 percent in the last quarter of the 2017/18 fiscal year compared with 2.4 per cent a year earlier indicated a pick-up in the private investments.

Yet banking credit, a main source for corporate borrowing, remained weak following a surge in bad loans, as banks have been reluctant to extend new loans. The 21 state lenders hold two-thirds of banking assets, and accounted for the bulk of the record $150 billion of soured loans in the banking sector in 2017.

Consumption, which accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the $2.5 trillion economy likely remained firm, supporting economic growth as reflected in the higher sales of consumer durables and vehicles.

"Corporate sector results and the industrial production readings have been better than expected. Hence, the industrial sector could pull the GDP growth number up," said Tushar Arora, senior economist with HDFC Bank.

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Source: khaleejtimes

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