Only when the three regional hegemons - Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia - reach some sort of accommodation with each other, will the proxy wars raging throughout the region calm down. Only then will national foes reach some accommodation, and governments of national unity can start to rebuild nations shattered by a decade of more or less constant conflict.
Is this likely to happen under a future King Mohammed?
The accidental heir
That future king, the current crown prince, is an accidental heir to the throne. He is only in pole position by dint of his father, and as I reported in my columns on the palace coup that took place when King Abdullah died, MBS’s accession to the throne very nearly did not happen.
Bin Salman faced huge obstacles getting himself taken seriously when he arrived on the scene. He has only surmounted them by ruthlessly eliminating rival centres of power, putting all three of Saudi Arabia’s armies under his personal control, and by taking all decision making into his hands.
This history leaves the small army of advocates he has installed in the US arguing positions that are mutually contradictory. The first is "give the guy a chance, because he is inexperienced".
Ali Shihabi, founder of the Arabia Foundation tweeted this three days ago: "To expect Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), a young leader with only a few years of experience, to have handled such a political calamity with the virtuoso performance of a seasoned, wise, experienced Western politician is unfair and malicious.”
But in the next breath, Shihabi argues that to change a crown prince with proven problems is to risk the stability of the kingdom.
“Stability and continuity are absolutely paramount. And MBS is going nowhere. A change in leadership would put the country, already surrounded by peril, into inconceivable turmoil, giving rise to political jockeying and possible risk of collapse.”
It is surely the other way round: to keep bin Salman in the leadership is to risk throwing a country surrounded by peril into inconceivable turmoil.
You can all keep your bloodstained and deeply comprised arms industries, which are equipping the dictators of the world. There will just be a different prince at the helm
Just imagine what bin Salman would do if he gets away with Khashoggi’s murder, if Trump continues to insist the Saudi cover story is credible, if King Salman manages to persuade the world that his son is on a sharp learning curve and that after a sharp wrap over the knuckles, the errant boy has given him his word he won't do such a thing ever again.
If this happens, MBS will unleash a reign of terror in the kingdom. Literally nothing will be out of bounds if he emerges from this scandal unscathed.
There are alternatives to him, many princes who are more experienced, more stable, and who have the support of the family and the nation. One of them is in London at the moment: Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, a former deputy minister of the interior who is popular, less adversarial and could re-establish unity within the family.
No lost arms contracts, no job losses at BAE Systems. You can all keep your bloodstained and deeply comprised arms industries, which are equipping the dictators of the world. There will just be a different prince at the helm.
This is, of course, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign choice. But that choice would be easier to make if the leaders of the Western world refused as one to deal with bin Salman, if they determined to make him a pariah on the international stage.
So that the next time he turns up in London, it would not be to march, gowns flowing in the direction of 10 Downing Street. It would be to be interviewed under universal jurisdiction for crimes against humanity by the Metropolitan Police’s anti-terrorist squad.
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