2018 Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win Big This Year?

Life

BEST ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Despite the presence of luminaries Dench and Mirren, this category is the battle of the ingenues, with young awards-season darling Saoirse Ronan (a three-time Globe nominee at only 23) facing off against Margot Robbie, whose buzzy performance in I, Tonya has elevated her into the awards conversation she first skirted with her breakthrough role in The Wolf of Wall Street. (Emma Stone, last year’s winner in this category, is surely just fine sitting this competition out.) Though Ronan’s Lady Bird has been a more overall awards-season favorite, it has just one more Globe nomination than I, Tonya, suggested a parity of affection among Globes voters. And this category, often a bizarre mix of musicals and dramedies and rom-coms, is where the Globes are known to get weird—just look at Jennifer Lawrence’s win for Joy in 2016. So while Ronan may still have the advantage in buzz, don’t be surprised if Robbie sneaks up to take this one in the end.

BEST ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

If you enjoy seeing film-geek Twitter erupt in spasms of collective rage, you should be rooting for Ansel Elgort to win this award for his Sphinx-like performance in the title role of Baby Driver. But if you just want to pick the winner, go with James Franco, who commits 1,000 percent to his portrayal of the anti-talented filmmaker Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist. Putting his ass on the line, literally and figuratively, Franco manages to make you love (or at least warily appreciate) the mysterious Wiseau without shying away from the scary side of his freakishness. Franco, who has dreamed up his share of misfires over the years, also gets bonus points for not just starring in but also directing this bold, unlikely crowd-pleaser.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

In an awards season where nearly everything seems up in the air, only one thing feels certain: Willem Dafoe will win an Oscar for his sweet, sympathetic portrayal of a rundown motel manager in The Florida Project. He has won virtually every critics’ precursor up to this point, and as an industry veteran who has built up decades of goodwill, there’s no reason to expect that celebration to end. His toughest competition here might be the most surprising: Christopher Plummer’s last-minute casting in All the Money in the World earned remarkably good reviews, and not just for how surprised critics were to see him step in so ably to the role as J. Paul Getty. Could the shock factor be enough to lead to a shock win? We’re not betting on it, but 2017 proved repeatedly that stranger things can happen.

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