On 8 May, President Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal – the 2015 international agreement aimed at preventing the Iranians from developing a nuclear weapon- and vowed to impose ‘powerful’ new sanctions against Tehran. Since then, Washington has upped its rhetoric, threatening to impose ‘the strongest sanctions in history’.

But such moves will probably go the same way as the Qatari blockade. The Iranians will prove adept at side-stepping some of the measures, moving closer to China, Turkey and any other countries that are willing to challenge the American line. Inside Iran, hardliners will exploit any hardship – or even the mere threat of it- to stir up national resentment at ‘foreign plots’, allowing them to bolster their position.

The most important reason, however, is that the imposition of sanctions will provoke a new wave of anti-American sentiment. The United States will be more widely viewed as the oppressor and warmonger, and Iran as the innocent victim. This is partly because Tehran has complied with the terms of the 2015 deal. But these sentiments will also merge with commercial interests: EU governments, particularly France and Germany, did have considerable and growing business interests in Iran that, under the threat of sanctions, they are now having to surrender. Many people will resent the commercial losses that the sanctions will impose.

Let us hope that Washington will acknowledge the lessons of the Qatar blockade and reconsider its position towards Iran.

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