There is, of course, no surefire way to augur what will happen at the notoriously nutty Golden Globes, an awards ceremony that considers The Martian a comedy and Downton Abbey a miniseries. But that won’t deter the awards experts at Vanity Fair from making our best guesses about what to expect when the show airs on January 7. Read on to learn who we think will triumph in the ceremony’s biggest categories—though anything is possible on Globes night.

FILM

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The conventional wisdom here would be that Dunkirk—a big, technically marvelous British production that memorializes a grim but heroic time in European history—would be most to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s liking. And maybe it will be. But the H.F.P.A. is famously odd and idiosyncratic, so maybe conventional wisdom is not the way to go here. That’s why we’re predicting Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. It’s lush and romantic, just like Atonement was when it beat No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood at the Globes 10 years ago. Though, uh, there was a big scene set at Dunkirk in that film, so maybe we’re way off? There’s also a chance that The Post, with its Streep, and Hanks, and Spielberg pedigree could eke out a win, but we’ll give the slight advantage to Sally Hawkinsand her sea monster right now.

BEST ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

In a ferociously competitive year for lead actresses, nothing feels guaranteed—especially when four of these five nominees have, at some point in this up-and-down season, been considered front-runners for the best-actress Oscar. Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand both have excellent chances here, Hawkins a previous surprise winner for Happy-Go-Lucky and McDormand a multiple-time nominee who gives the kind of arresting lead performance that’s difficult to ignore. But then again, they have the misfortune of competing against Meryl Streep, who has nineGolden Globes—including the honorary Cecil B. DeMille award she accepted last year with a fiery political speech that earned an angry tweet from the then-president-elect. Who wouldn’t want to see a repeat of that by bringing Meryl, who also happens to be excellent in The Post, up on stage once again?

BEST ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Talk about a clash of the titans! You’ve got four of the most accomplished and celebrated actors of their generation (that singular is intentional—they were all born between 1954 and 58) going head-to-head-to-head-to-head in this category. Aaaaaand . . . you’ve got a 22-year-old kid no one had heard of until this year. Imagine what it’s like to be Timothée Chalamet, then, who actually could beat allof these guys with what amounts to the first leading role of his career. That would be a sight to behold—but, for all the justified excitement surrounding his luminous performance in Call Me by Your Name, it would also be a surprise. The truth is, Gary Oldman still has the advantage in this race—not only because he utterly transforms into a wartime Winston Churchill in Joe Wright’s Darkest Hour, but also because he embodies everything Hollywood’s tastemakers (and Europe’s freelance journalists) are yearning for now: a leader who, while eccentric as all hell, has the brains, the guts, and the moral fiber to save civilization from the brink of destruction.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

If you listen to the experts, this is a two-horse race between legit Oscar best-picture contenders Lady Bird and Get Out. And yet, the canny bettor must ask some tough questions before placing her or his wager. First: could the talk of “category fraud” hurt Get Out’s chances? Second: are there even enough qualifying laughs in Lady Bird? Third: should The Disaster Artist, which nicked a slot most pundits had reserved for The Big Sick, be happy just to be nominated, or does its presence here reflect a more ardent form of admiration? Fourth: how much face time has the notoriously sway-able H.F.P.A. spent with Australian screen goddess Margot Robbie of I, Tonya? And fifth: is this ragtag group of foreign “journalists” actually eccentric enough to hand this thing to Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman? With all that in mind, and considering the broader #MeToo moment, we’re putting our chips on the only movie in this group to be directed by a woman: Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird.

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